BlizzCon: Predictions success rate so far, play-off predictions

If you missed it, we wrote a preview post for the WCS Playoffs where we had Aligulac predict the results, in addition to gathering a lot of statistics and facts about the competitors and putting them in info-graphics and spreadsheets for your convenience!

Well, now that the group stages have completed we’re back again to give you a look at the tournament heading into BlizzCon which is starting this Friday on November 4th.

Groups

The only predictions Aligulac failed on were Zest advancing over TRUE in Group B, and Elazer advancing over Nerchio in Group D.

While these results came as a surprise to Aligulac, they didn’t surprise us as much. Zest was widely considered undervalued by Aligulac and at the time of our post we predicted he would likely advance.

As for Elazer, while we didn’t predict that specific result we did mention how we though at least one the three lowest WCS Circuit Players (PtitDrogo, viOLet, Elazer) would surprise players and upset predictions. While both Drogo and Elazer pulled some upsets, we’re not too surprised out of the three underdogs it was Elazer who managed to pull off the biggest upset and make it out of his group. While it was still a fantastic and incredible achievement, it feels winning some surprising ZvZ’s was a more likely path for Elazer than viOLet beating players like Byun or PtitDrogo besting Dark and Stats.

As for other results, while it did predict ShoWTimE to advance it didn’t predict he would advance without losing a single map. In fact, it predicted ShoWTimE would advance second place, not first place. ShoWTimE is the only player who has not yet dropped a single map.

This is the first year since Naniwa in 2013 that non-Korean players will be playing on the stage in front of BlizzCons massive crowds, and the first time ever foreigners made it to the quarterfinals of a Global Finals.

 

This shares some similarities with our initial bracket prediction in that it predicts Byun vs a non-Korean Protoss in the finals, the main difference being ShoWTimE gets an easier bracket and Neeb gets a harder one.

Overall I think Aligulac underestimates TY and Zest while overestimating Byun and ShoWTimE, but at this stage in the tournament almost any player seems capable of taking the whole thing.

ShoWTimE vs Elazer:

On paper this match looks the least close with ShoWTimE’s dominant performance in his group and Elazer considered the weakest player in the quarterfinals.

But this match is closer than it looks. We’ve seen neither player play a PvZ this tournament so we don’t know their form in this match-up and the last three times Elazer and ShoWTimE fought, Elazer won. When this tournament began nobody could have predicted Elazer would be a semi-finalist, yet that is a possibility here.

Dark vs Neeb:

For a lot of people this is the msot exciting game of the quarterfinals: Neeb is a fan favorite, and Dark is the Zerg hope. It’s a close match with fan-favorite players.

I expect this will look similar to the Zest vs Neeb series: It’ll be very close, but either because of nerves or small mistakes Neeb will lose out in the end. But as a Neeb fan, let’s hope I’m wrong!

TY vs ByuN:

Initially I was sad the two sole Terrans at BlizzCon had to kill each other in the quarterfinals, but the more I think about it the more I’m excited for this match. First, despite how few Terrans the tournament had it means we’ll still  be able to see an incredibly high level TvT, and TvT can be an amazing match-up to watch. Secondly, despite having to eliminate each-other at least it guarantees a Terran for the semi-finals. Lastly, despite ShoWTimE’s victory over ByuN I feel all of the foreigners are afraid of fighting these top Terrans, so by placing them together at the opposite end of the bracket it gives us higher chances for a non-Korean in the finals.

ByuN’s incredible control vs TY’s wit and clean play: this is going to be an absolutely legendary TvT.

Zest vs Stats:

We’ve had so many exciting PvP series in this tournament, yet this one might be the best yet. Not only are both players incredibly skilled, the stakes are also higher than ever. To top it all off, with so many prior PvP games (including series from both these players) and a longer series, we might see out-there builds or unexpected cheeses and desperate base-trade. The normal games will probably look similar to previous series, but I almost gaurentee you that at least one of the games will end with some unforgettable engagement or nail-biting base-trade.

See you during BlizzCon!

BlizzCon runs November 4-5th, this Friday and Saturday. Don’t miss it, not just for the WCS Global Finals but announcements from Blizzard about upcoming changes to StarCraft II.

Happy Halloween!

- Sc2replaystats.com staff

 Post written by Justin “TheSkunk” Purdy

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